DISCUSSION
In this nationwide study of 520 TB patients, 18 of 35 transmission clusters identified by standard molecular genotyping (spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR typing) were refuted by WGS. This suggests that transmission of M. tuberculosis is generally overestimated in countries with a low incidence of TB such as Switzerland. Furthermore, we found a striking difference between transmission clusters involving Swiss-born patients and clusters involving foreign-born patients. WGS confirmed three quarters of the clusters involving Swiss-born individuals only but only one quarter of the clusters involving foreign-born patients only, hence indicating that transmission was especially overestimated in the immigrant population.
M. tuberculosis strains from immigrants, which were defined as clustered by MIRU-VNTR typing but not by WGS, are likely genetically closely related genotypes imported independently from a high-incidence region where they are highly prevalent (
19). Such strains accumulate genetic mutations over time (often leading to pairwise SNP distances of >12 SNPs), but the MIRU-VNTR typing pattern may not change. In such a situation, identical MIRU-VNTR typing will be wrongly interpreted as recent transmission in the country of immigration (
9). Similar observations were made in the United Kingdom, where immigrant TB patients were identified in transmission clusters on the basis of standard MIRU-VNTR genotyping, although no epidemiological link could be found during contact investigations (
16).
The clustering proportion (indicating recent transmission) among Swiss-born individuals was similar when standard genotyping and WGS were used but more than 2-fold lower among foreign-born individuals when WGS was used. In reality, the clustering proportion among foreign-born individuals might even be lower, as we cannot exclude the possibility that WGS-confirmed clusters (≤12 SNPs) involving immigrants might partly represent transmission that happened in the country of origin and not in Switzerland. Only social contact tracing could provide further insights into transmission dynamics, but such investigations are notoriously difficult to perform, particularly among immigrants (
23,
38). The low proportion of true transmission clusters among immigrants in our study was further supported by the weighted analysis of predictors of transmission, which showed that foreign-born TB patients tended to be less likely than Swiss-born patients to be involved in true clusters. Of note, the clustering proportion among immigrants is remarkably similar to previous observations among immigrant patients with multidrug resistance diagnosed in Switzerland, which showed a clustering proportion of 8% (compared to 7% in our study) on the basis of standard genotyping and contact tracing (
30).
The majority of mixed molecular clusters as defined by MIRU-VNTR typing (i.e., involving Swiss- and foreign-born individuals) showed small SNP distances (≤12 SNPs), confirming the intuitive explanation that transmission between Swiss-born and foreign-born patients likely occurred in Switzerland. This was further supported by the analysis of geographic distances between patient birth countries, which indicated that most of the isolate pairs in the mixed clusters were from patients born far away from each other, despite small genetic distances. The five mixed clusters harboring larger SNP distances may reflect TB cases due to infections by circulating global or European
M. tuberculosis genotypes, such as the recently described large cluster in Eastern Europe (
39).
We found no evidence of infection with multiple strains among clustered TB cases in the WGS data, despite the presence of double alleles in the MIRU-VNTR typing patterns of five clustered isolates. Infections with multiple strains could potentially also influence the identification of molecular clusters, as individual strains in an infection with multiple strains cannot be resolved by MIRU-VNTR typing. The prevalence and relevance of such multiple infections need to be studied further (
40–42).
A potential limitation of our study is the definition of transmission clusters by WGS. The threshold of 12 SNPs that we used to exclude transmission has been established by Walker et al. (
17) and is in the range of what other studies have used (
21,
43,
44). However, an adequate cluster definition may be adapted according to the setting (low versus high TB incidence), the study population, and the technical specifications of the WGS analysis pipeline (i.e., whether particular genomic regions such as the PE/polymorphic GC-repetitive sequence genes are excluded from the analysis, which was the case here). For comparison, we repeated the analyses with a stricter definition of transmission clusters also proposed by Walker et al. (MIRU-VNTR typing clusters in which at least one pairwise distance was ≤5 SNPs [
17]), which further reduced the number of true clusters to 13 but did not change the overall clustering proportion significantly. A further limitation may be our sample size: we included 12.3% of the TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 in Switzerland, which potentially underestimates the overall clustering proportion (
29). Indeed, SNP distances could, in fact, become shorter upon the inclusion of additional patient isolates with intermediate genotypes, hence increasing the proportion of true clusters.
In conclusion, only one quarter of the foreign-born transmission clusters previously identified by MIRU-VNTR typing were confirmed as true transmission clusters by WGS. We therefore recommend the use of WGS for more accurate identification of recent transmission of
M. tuberculosis among immigrants in countries with a low incidence of TB but also in countries with a high TB incidence, where genetically closely related strains circulate. Although WGS analysis remains resource intensive, the strategy adopted in the United Kingdom documents that implementing WGS in the routine public laboratory surveillance system is feasible (
21,
45) and allows the prompt identification of transmission clusters, as well as information about the drug resistance genotype (
45,
46). Our results also indicate that the native population in Switzerland may also play a role in spreading TB, particularly individuals belonging to high-risk populations (
22,
23). Additional prospective studies using WGS are needed, possibly complemented with social network analyses (
20), to evaluate the usefulness of real-time analyses of TB transmission dynamics in countries with a low incidence of TB.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank all of the TB patients who participated in this study, the treating physicians who provided clinical information, and the microbiology laboratories providing strains. We are grateful to the National TB Surveillance Registry at the Federal Office of Public Health.
The members of the Molecular Epidemiology of Tuberculosis Study Group are as follows. The central coordinating team consists of Lukas Fenner and Matthias Egger, Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, Bern; Sebastien Gagneux and Marcel Tanner, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel; and Hansjakob Furrer, Inselspital Bern. The National Center for Mycobacteria is represented by Erik C. Böttger, Institute of Medical Microbiology, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland. The microbiology laboratory members are Reno Frei, Clinical Microbiology, University Hospital Basel; Thomas Bodmer and Sara Droz, Institute for Infectious Diseases, University of Bern; Jacques Schrenzel, Laboratory of Bacteriology, University Hospitals of Geneva; Katia Jaton, Institute of Microbiology, University Hospital of Lausanne; Hans Siegrist, ADMed Microbiology, La Chaux-de-Fonds; Gaby E. Pfyffer, Department of Medical Microbiology, Luzerner Kantonsspital, Lucerne; Thomas Bruderer and Detlev Schultze, Center for Laboratory Medicine, St. Gallen; Marisa Dolina, Clinical Microbiology, EOLAB, Bellinzona, Switzerland; and Olivier Dubuis, Viollier AG Switzerland, Allschwil. The SHCS is represented by Manuel Battegay, University Hospital Basel; Enos Bernasconi and Andrea Parini, Lugano; Matthias Hoffmann, St. Gallen; Hansjakob Furrer, Inselspital Bern; Matthias Cavassini, University Hospital of Lausanne; Bernard Hirschel and Alexandra Calmy, University Hospital of Geneva; and Jan Fehr, University Hospital of Zürich. The respiratory clinic members are Jean-Paul Janssens, University Hospital of Geneva, and Jesica Mazza Stalder, University Hospital of Lausanne. The Federal Office of Public Health is represented by Peter Helbling and Ekkehardt Altpeter, Division of Communicable Diseases. Also included is Hans L. Rieder, Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Prevention Institute, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
The members of the SHCS are J. Barth, M. Battegay, E. Bernasconi, J. Böni, H. C. Bucher, C. Burton-Jeangros, A. Calmy, M. Cavassini, C. Cellerai, M. Egger, L. Elzi, J. Fehr, J. Fellay, M. Flepp, P. Francioli (president of the SHCS), H. Furrer (chairman of the Clinical and Laboratory Committee), C. A. Fux, M. Gorgievski, H. Günthard (chairman of the Scientific Board), D. Haerry (deputy of the Positive Council), B. Hasse, H. H. Hirsch, B. Hirschel, I. Hösli, C. Kahlert, L. Kaiser, O. Keiser, C. Kind, T. Klimkait, H. Kovari, B. Ledergerber, G. Martinetti, B. Martinez de Tejada, K. Metzner, N. Müller, D. Nadal, G. Pantaleo, A. Rauch, S. Regenass, M. Rickenbach (head of the Data Center), C. Rudin (chairman of the Mother & Child Substudy), P. Schmid, D. Schultze, F. Schöni-Affolter, J. Schüpbach, R. Speck, P. Taffé, P. Tarr, A. Telenti, A. Trkola, P. Vernazza, R. Weber, and S. Yerly.
We have no conflicts of interest to declare.